Monday, December 24, 2007

Natural Resources: Stock Up For 2008


At this very moment, we are witnessing a natural resource explosion of massive global dimensions ...
 
Nearly every resource under the sun is surging in value — gold busting through the $800 level ... silver up 18% ... platinum, 33% ... oil nearly reaching $100, its highest level ever ... and more.
 
Nearly every stock linked to natural resources is powering higher.
 
Every natural resource-based stock market — Brazil, Canada , Australia, New Zealand and more — is enjoying spectacular gains. Every natural resource-based foreign currency and every commodity-driven ETF is surging in tandem.
 
In sum, we have a natural resource explosion of massive, global dimensions.
Of course, corrections — sometimes moderate, sometimes sharp — are inevitable. But they're bound to be short-lived as three megaforces come together to drive the biggest natural resources boom of all time ...
 
Megaforce #1
Massive, Rapid Growth of the World's Largest and Most Populous Continent
 
 
Imagine a continent five times larger than the lower 48 states with thirteen times the population.
 
Then imagine a socio-economic transformation that combines the Industrial Revolution, the Information Age, and the rapid birth of fervent entrepreneurial spirit, all concentrated into one short generation.
 
That's the phenomenon called Asia today — steam­rolling ahead, overtaking the world's leading industrial powers and leaving many in the dust. Here are just the most recent results:
 
* China's third-quarter growth was an astonishing 11.5%, four times faster than ours, with spending on factories and property surging 26.4%, industrial production expanding 17.9%, and the country's trade surplus up 70% in the first nine months.
 
* India is not far behind. Economy — up 8.9% in the third quarter. Money flooding into the Indian stock market — $19 billion so far this year, already double last year's record $9.5 billion. Money to be spent on infrastructure and manufacturing — more than $500 billion in the next three years.
 
* Singapore's economy surged 9.4%, the longest expansion since 1991. Factories, financial services, construction — all booming.
 
* South Korea, Malaysia , Hong Kong, even traditionally troubled sisters like Indonesia and the Philippines — all following a similar path.
 
End result: A megaforce of unprecedented dimensions driving the demand for energy, metals, foods and more. Some examples ...
 
Aluminum consumption is rising at nearly 30% annually, hitting a record 14.6 million metric tons this year.
 
Nickel, used to make aluminum, is in such intense demand that inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have plunged a whopping 89% in the past 12 months to 3,702 tons. That's less than enough to last two meager days of global consumption.
 
Zinc stockpiles just hit their lowest level since 1991 due to overwhelming demand.
 
And despite the U.S. housing bust, copper demand has exploded to more than 18 million metric tons annually.
 
Gold demand is jumping 20% annually. In the third quarter, which ended August 31, India alone consumed more than half the world's total production.
 
Platinum demand is growing at the highest rate of all time.
 
Demand for coffee, wheat, corn, soybeans, even palm oil is off the charts.
And don't forget crude oil. OPEC nations are pumping at near capacity.
 
Mother Earth is straining to pony up the black gold. But it's still not nearly enough to satisfy the spiraling demand from Asia.
 
Result: The highest crude oil prices of all time in nominal terms, and very close to the highest of all time even in inflation-adjusted terms.

Megaforce #2

The Plunging U.S. Dollar
 
The U.S. dollar has now crossed a landmark that will go down in history as the turning point of our era: The greenback has plunged below its all-time low in 1992 to its lowest level of all time.
 
With this single, landmark event, the dollar has crossed from a period of slow, orderly declines ... to a new era of rapid, chaotic declines; from a time when its impact could be ignored ... to a time when its impact will be felt everywhere, especially on those assets that rise the most when the dollar falls — natural resources.
 
And as the greenback sinks, foreign currencies soar:
 
The euro is on a rampage, surging by more than 10 U.S. cents just since August and up 11.5% since the beginning of the year.
 
The Canadian dollar surpassed par with the dollar for the first time in 30 years — and then kept right on going. It now buys around $1.00 U.S., the most since 1960.
 
The Australian dollar, which bought 78 U.S. cents just two and a half months ago, now buys 88 cents ...
 
The Brazilian real has set a seven-year high ... the South Korean won and the Singapore dollar just hit their highest levels in a decade ... even the Chinese yuan, forcibly held down by the Chinese authorities, has jumped to a new high.
 
The impact on natural resources is both immediate and long term.
 
The reasons: Nearly all of the world's resources are priced in dollars. So almost as soon as the dollar falls, their prices have to adjust upward to compensate for the dollar's decline.
 
Meanwhile, international investors, still stuck with trillions in falling U.S. dollars, are not standing still. They see what's happening. And they're running for cover, switching from dollars to any and every contra-dollar asset they can lay their hands on — foreign currencies, gold, silver, other natural resources.
 
Buying contra-dollar investments has been the core of our strategy, and we certainly hope you've followed our lead. If so, you already own what millions of investors around the world now crave — investments that go up when the dollar goes down. If not, it's certainly not too late to start, thanks to ...
 
Megaforce #3
Central Banks Flooding The World With Paper Money And With Wild Abandon
 
 
The world's monetary authorities see the U.S. housing market in its worst downturn of modern times. They see hundreds of mortgage lenders going broke or on the brink.
 
And they see financial firms reeling from tens of billions of dollars in losses.
 
So they're panicking. Running the printing presses overtime.
 
In the U.S., the Fed has been injecting the most money into the banking system since the 9/11 attacks.
 
In Europe, the supply of money is exploding at its fastest pace in 28 years. In Asia, it's even more extreme — money pouring out of every nook and cranny and flooding into the global markets.
 
Meanwhile, interest rates — normally driven higher by surging economies and soaring commodity prices — are, instead, being held down or even pushed sharply lower.
 
Just in the last two months, the U.S. Fed has slashed its discount rate by 1.25 percentage points and its fed funds rate by .75!
 
The European Central Bank, hell bent on hiking its official rates just three months ago, abruptly stopped. And central banks all over the world did the same.
 
 
No Time Left! Take Action Now ... or Never
 
Look. We're not talking about a long-forgotten event or even a soon-to-come storm on the horizon. This is it! These megaforces are here now. Either you do something to adapt ... or you could be left behind.
 
These are opportunities that can change your life and secure your future ... while the pitfalls could erode — and ultimately destroy — your earnings, your savings and your retirement.
 
And if you're thinking the bulk of the commodity-price rises are behind us, think again. Measured in today's dollars, the price of almost every natural resource on the planet is still far, far below the peak price levels established the last time central banks did what they're doing today.
 
Just to match that peak, the price of aluminum would have to surge by over 2.2 times from its recent peak and the price of tin would have to jump by nearly 2.4 times.
 
If gold rises to the same level as it did back in 1980, measured in today's dollars, it would go to $2,271 per ounce — almost triple its most recent peak.
And for some commodities, the undervaluation today relative to their prior peaks is even more extreme: Cocoa, now in rising demand in Asia, would have to sextuple in price. Sugar would have to go up by more than eleven times!
 
Silver, meanwhile, would have to surge to $145, nearly 10 times today's peak.
No one can say with certainty that they will go that far. Nor can anyone be sure their rise will be contained to those levels. But one thing is obvious: There is no evidence that commodities are peaking ... and there's abundant evidence that they have much more upside potential.
 
Ditto for ETFs that track commodity-sensitive economies ... shares of companies profiting from the resources boom ... and foreign currencies that are rising in value as the dollar sinks.
 
What would it take to end this boom?
 
Almost three decades ago, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker ended the last commodity boom with Draconian money-tightening actions — jacking up interest rates by three full percentage points in one single announcement, slapping credit controls on the entire economy, sucking up the world's excess money like a giant vacuum cleaner.
 
Think about that scenario for a moment. Even in your wildest dreams, could you see today's Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke , doing something similar?
 
If your answer is "no," then you can rest assured that the end of the natural resource boom is not today or any time in the foreseeable future.
 
So ... stick with it. Ride this boom as far as it will take you. When we see the opportunity, we will have you take profits along the way. But for the most part, our strategy is to guide you to opportunities that are still in their pre-take-off stage ... and use every subsequent correction as a buying opportunity.
 
This South American country's GDP surged 6.1% in the second quarter. It's where we're seeing the biggest gains in decades in employment, consumer spending, and investment ... where the single largest export is booming ... and where the currency is rising steadily against the U.S. dollar.
 
So how can a conservative investor participate in that country's stable-but-rapid growth?
 
Alternative energy company with soaring profits
 
 
A torrent of forces have converged to create the perfect storm for skyrocketing oil prices:
  • Surging worldwide demand ...

  • A new string of Fed rate cuts ...

  • The U.S. dollar teetering on the verge of collapse ...

  • New tensions between Turks and Kurds ...

  • New attacks on oil-producing facilities ...
And no matter what you may already own in this sector, the time is right to branch out into alternative energy, fast becoming a national — and global — priority. One of our favorites: Solar energy.
 

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Monday, December 17, 2007

Ispat to fund expansion plans via equity route

Source : CNBC-TV18

Ispat Industries has a debt of about Rs 6500 crore. However, the company has plans for expansion, for which it wants to take the equity route. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Anil Sureka, ED Finance said that they expect debt to come down by close to Rs 800 crore over the next four quarters. He added that they will finance their capex plans via promoters, internal accruals and convertible instruments.


Talking about the company’s expansion plans, Sureka said they will up their HR coil capacity to 3.6 mt and will also add a blast furnace. A 4.5 mt pellet plant and a one mt coke over battery has also been planned. They will also be setting up a 1200 MW power plant costing about Rs 5000-5500 crore in Chhatisgarh

Sureka clarified that LN Mittal has showed no interest in Ispat Industries. According to him, steel prices will improve further on raw material pressures.

Excerpts of CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Anil Sureka:



Q: Before we talk about your expansions, just talk to us a little bit about what you are doing on the capital side. You’ve got nearly Rs 7,000 crores of debt. How much of that are you in a position to repay over the next four quarters? Would you need to raise any equity to finance some of these expansion plans? Just give us a layout.
A: Today you must have seen that our company has given a notice to the stock exchange for giving a warrant to the sponsors and that meeting will be taking place on December 22. This is basically to raise the equity side and the expansion scheme which of which we are now are in the implementation process, most of the money will be raised through the equity rated instrument only. That is also the way we are going to correct our debt equity ratio.



Q: Could you throw some numbers here? How much money would be pumped in by the promoters specifically, what their stake would go up to, whether you would issue any equity to non-promoter shareholders and what the debt will come down to in the next four quarters?
A: In the next four quarters the debt will come down by close to Rs 800 crore. How much equity we allot to sponsors will be decided in the board meeting only. Normally in a year we can give 5% equity voting rights to the sponsors. So it will be within that range.



Q: Where does your total debt stand at right now?
A: It is actually Rs 6500 crore.


Q: There are all kinds of rumours circling the market and you would be the best person to address them. Is it true that the Mittal family is showing any kind of interest in Ispat and you are in any sort of talks with them for some kind of stake sale?
A: This company belongs to the Mittal family only, Pramod and Vinod own the company.



Q: We are talking about Lakshmi Mittal’s family out here?
A: No I don’t thinkso, there is no such thing.



Q: Along with the debt reduction, what kind of capacity addition plan is it that Ispat has over the next four-six quarters?
A: We have planned that we’ll increase the HR coil capacity to 3-3.6 million tonne and we are also adding a blast furnace to support the capacity. We have also planned a pellet plant of roughly 4.5 million tonne. These are the major capex plan we have launched.

In addition to these, we have also launched a coke oven battery of 1 million tonne capacity. That will be in a separate SPV and it will be in a joint venture. All other projects will be in Ispat Industry.


Q: Could you give us a timeline of when this coke oven and the pellet plant would be up and running? What is the total investment that is required for all these expansions that you are talking about?
A: The coke oven will cost roughly Rs 900 crore and the pellet plant and the 3.6 million tonne blast furnace it will cost roughly Rs 1600 crore. The timeline for the pellet plant is roughly 27-months, coke oven is about 24-months and the other project between 12-16 months time.



Q: What kind of pricing do you see steel holding over the next four-six months as you go through the process of cleaning out debt and expanding capacity as well?
A: The steel prices will further improve, that is the industrial view because there is a lot of pressure on raw materials also. Raw material prices are going up and everybody knows that next year, the way things are happening in the iron ore business, industrially also the prices will go up.

Everybody is expecting that there will be a bit of upward movement in the raw material and that it should be the same in the HR finish goods also.



Q: Give us some details on the power project in Chhattisgarh. What kind of investment it would entail, by when you expect to commence work out there and what the capital investment structure is out there?
A: First I would like to address the 110-megawatt power plant which is already in the construction. This will be commissioned by November 2008. This is based on the blast furnace gases at Dolvy and it will meet roughly 30% of the requirement of the steel plant. So that will bring down the cost of power substantially.

Now coming to Chhattisgarh, we have signed an MoU with the government of Chhattisgarh for setting up a power plant of 1200 megawatt. It should cost around Rs 5000-5500 crore. Presently we are in the process of tying up the fuel, once that is tied up, then we will do the other activities too like the environmental clearances of the sector, etc parallel to that. But this will all be in a separate company, not in Ispat Industry.



Q: Just to ask that question again, since it keeps cropping up, are you sure that Lakshmi Mittal and Vinod Mittal have had no discussions about any kind of a joint development plan or expansion plan under the Ispat umbrella in India?
A: To my knowledge I am 100% sure.



Q: One word as well on what exactly you might look at in this equity route to raise finances?
A: One, we are talking to the sponsors. This week we will have a meeting for the allotment of warrant to them and the Board will decide. The other is we are raising finances for this Rs 1600 capex that we have planned. This will be mostly support by the sponsors, it will be a combination - sponsors, intellectuals or maybe some convertible instruments.

Q: But no more debt will be loaded on balance sheet, right?
A: The debt burden will not be much, we are trying to bring down the debt.

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Saturday, December 8, 2007

New Multibagger: Shiv-Vani Oil

Shiv-Vani Oil-Drilling Profits
BSE 522175;
CMP Rs 551
Target: 1000 in 12 months
 
Shiv-Vani Drilling is likely to become one of the prime beneficiaries of the near $ 3 bn Oil Exploration Budget of Ongc over the next 2-3 years. The hunt for Crude Oil is on in right earnest, as the GOI opens ever more larger blocks to foreign and domestic oil explorers both on-shore and off-shore. The Key Mantra these days is Oil Security and beyond Mukta, Panna, Tapti, Lakshmi, Aishwarya and Cairns Mangala on-shore prospects, only the Deen Dayal and Dhirubhai fields in AP offshore have discovered either oil or gas, since Crude was discovered in the Assam-Arakan belt before independence and in the Bombay High segments in then early 70s.
 
Shiv-Vani has 25 onshore rigs under operation with one more getting added in FY08. Additionally, it has 4 offshore vessels and is seeking to acquire jack-up rigs and PSVs, which would diversify its Revenues from just onshore oil exploration to the Offshore Oil, Pipeline Construction, Gas Compression and Allied Services segment especially development of Coal Bed Methane blocks and gasification and re-gasification of Natural Gas as more gas becomes available for transport, in about 8 months from now from the Krishna-Godavari fields. Shiv-Vani is the biggest private sector rig owner and operator in India for on-shore operations with 4 seismic data acquisition equipment, 4 crew boats, 7 compressors, 233 drilling rigs, 425 logistic supply vehicles, that include cranes, bunk houses, trailers, prime movers and forklifts.
 
Shiv-Vani is undergoing a CAPEX of Rs 600 crore, a part of which has been financed through private equity placed with Citigroup Internationational Growth Partnership Mauritius at Rs 375 per share. This CAPEX is being made to prepare Shiv-Vani for the NELP VII which will offer 80 to 85 blocks covering an area of 352,000 sq kms.
 
While Ongc has been accounting for nearly 60 per cent of Shiv-Vani's Revenues, it is the entry of Cairn, Reliance, Videocon and GSPC which is making the field bigger and wider. Earlier this year Ongc had made an attempt to acquire 25 onshore rigs from UPET of Romania, which ultimately did not work out. Now Ongc is trying to acquire 17 Rigs for exploration in the Assam-Arakan Oil belt. Shiv-Vani is likely to be the prime beneficiary of this effort as it possesses the largest number of onshore drilling rigs in the country. Any newsflow on this count will work as a price trigger for Shiv-Vani.
 
Even though FY09 will turn out to be a year of massive growth for Shiv-Vani, but at 16 times FY08 forecast earnings Shiv-Vani Oil appears to be amongst the cheapest plays in the sector when compared to marginal oil drilling players like Garware Offshore and Jindal Drilling which offer just OSVs and 2 Oil Drilling Rigs between themselves.

Read More...

Monday, December 3, 2007

Sharekhan Investor's Eye dated December 03, 2007


STOCK UPDATE

Jindal Saw            
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,018
Current market price: Rs898

Price target revised to Rs1,018

Key points

  • Jindal Saw Ltd (JSL), the largest pipe manufacturer in the country, continues to benefit from the huge opportunity in the sector due a surge in E&P activities globally and a strong domestic and export demand.
  • At the end of the last quarter, JSL's order book stood at $715 million, which is executable by May/June 2008. Of this, $565 million orders are for Submerged Arc Welded (SAW) pipes while the remaining orders were for ductile iron (DI) and seamless pipes.
  • The performance of the company is set to improve further going forward. The US operations had been a drag on company's earnings in the past. With the US division being hived off along with a better product mix due to higher contribution from seamless and DI pipes, the overall profitability of the company is set to improve.
  • JSL has a big investment book with investments in various group companies, particularly Jindal Steel & Power and JSW Steel. The total investment value works out to Rs403 per share for JSL. We believe JSL has strong potential for value unlocking and the same is likely to trigger a re-rating of its stock. We value the core business of the company at 11x CY2009E earnings and take the investment value at a 75% discount to its current value.
  • The company has an aggressive capital expenditure (capex) plan, as it is expanding its Longitudinal Submerged Arc Welded (LSAW) capacity by another 200,000 tonne by September 2008 and is adding 350,000 tonne to its Horizontal Submerged Arc Welded (HSAW) capacity. The total capex for the same would be Rs250 crore by the end of CY2008. The capacity expansion of the seamless pipes to 250,000 tonnes is also on schedule.
  • We maintain our positive outlook on the company considering its leadership position in the industry and the scope for margin expansion. With the sale of the US operations, the company would also be sitting on a huge cash pile, which would partly be used for debt repayments and capacity expansions. We believe the stock is trading at attractive valuations at 17.1x its CY2008E earnings and 10.8x its CY2009E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs1,018.

SECTOR UPDATE

Automobiles

Four-wheelers sales continue to be robust
Sales of two-wheelers for November 2007 were slightly below our expectations. Production constraints are restricting the industry growth, which is witnessing a revival in sales after almost one year followed by new launches and festive season. The declining sales trend on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis is poised to turn positive. The four-wheelers sales continue to be robust due to successful new launches. The growth rate of four wheelers is expected to decelerate in the second half due to high base of second half of last year.
 

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Bloomberg - UTV

Must Watch...Ad may come initially.. wait for video.Also keep volume on

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